Explaining Criminal Careers - MacLeod, John F. (Visiting Scholar, Institute of Criminology, Cambridge University) a Grove, Peter G. (Senior Principal Analyst, Department of Health, UK) a Farrington, David P. (Professor of Psychological Criminology, Institute of Criminology, Cambridge Univ

Using the Home Office Offenders Index, a unique database containing records of all criminal (standard list) convictions in England and Wales since 1963, this simple but influential theory makes exact quantitative predictions about criminal careers and age-crime curves, in particular the prison population contingent on a given sentencing policy.