Taking Chances (Winning with Probability) - John Haigh

What are the odds against winning the Lottery, making money in a casino, or backing the right horse? Every day, people make judgements on these matters and face other decisions that rest on their understanding of probability: buying insurance, following medical advice, carrying an umbrella. Yet many of us have a frightening ignorance of how probability works. Taking Chances presents an entertaining and fascinating exploration of probability, revealing traps and fallacies in the field. It describes and analyses a remarkable variety of situations where chance plays a role, including football pools, the Lottery, TV games, sport, cards, roulette, coins, and dice. The book guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favour. This new edition has been fully updated, and includes information on "Who Wants to be a Millionaire?" and "The Weakest Link", plus a new chapter on Probability for Lawyers. This new edition has been fully updated, and includes information on "Who Wants to be a Millionaire?" and "The Weakest Link", plus a new chapter on Probability for LawyersUses a range of real life examples, such as the lottery, horseracing, and television game showsReveals many common fallacies in gambling strategiesWritten by an expert in the field of mathematics Table of Contents 1: What is probability? 2: Lotteries 3: Football Pools, Premium Bonds 4: One coin, many games 5: Dice 6: Games with few choices 7: Waiting, waiting, waiting 8: Let's play best of three 9: TV games 10: Casino games 11: Bookies, the Tote, spread betting 12: This sporting life 13: Lucky for some—miscellenea 14: Probability for lawyers Appendix I: Counting Appendix II: Probability Appendix III: Averages and variability Appendix IV: Goodness-of-fit tests Appendix V: The Kelly strategy Solutions to Test Yourself quizzes Literature cited Index